After an unprecedented collapse in global GDP in the second quarter, there has been a significant bounce in the third. But that was just the beginning of what appears set to be a long uphill struggle. The progress seen so far may yet prove to have been the easiest part of the recovery. It has so far been uneven and in many countries there are signs that the pace with which activity is trying to claw back its way to pre-pandemic levels is starting to slow. Confidence, particularly among consumers, is faltering, as they become increasingly concerned about the future outlook for jobs. So savings rates appear likely to stay high amid the uncertainty. Most risks are clearly to the downside. There are plenty of geopolitical tensions, but most downside risks relate to the possibility of some kind of second wave of the pandemic. Read further.